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<br />Marion County Facilities Master Plan <br />1.0 Introduction <br />Marion County's demography is an important consideration in the estimacion of long-term, <br />County-wide staff and space requirements -- even though making a direct association between <br />population and any single department's staff is impossible. The cumulative effect of the County <br />population is in the County's ability to fund staff positions. A change in the County-wide ratio <br />of staff to total population implies a change in the availability of revenue to fund services <br />provided by staff. <br />The impact of demographic change on County staff and space requirements must be evaluated <br />in addition to the chan;es anticipated within individual departments. For the purposes .of this <br />facilities plan, several means of projecting staff and space needs are compared. This report <br />provides a summary of those projections and findings. <br />2.0 Population and Demographic Change <br />~ Marion County's total population in 1993 is estimated to be 244,883, based on data collected <br />- by the U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and analysis by the Mid <br />~ Willamette Valley Council of Governments (MWVCOG). The population has grown at an <br />average annual compound rate of 1'.72% over the previous decade -- although not at a <br />consistently stable rate of increase. Most of the growth since 1983 has occurred since 1987, <br />~ resuming a longer term trend of growth in place prior to 1980. Since 1973, Marion County has <br />increased in population at an average annual rate of 2.11%. If one excludes the slowed-growth <br />interval occurring between 1980 and 1986 (when oniy 4,500 new residents were added), Marion <br />l County would have grown at a rate of 2.87% annually over the past two decades. <br />Growth projections by biWVCOG suggest continued growth at a gradually decreasing rate over <br />the next twenty years in Marion County. The 1993 population of 244,883 will increase to <br />261,800 by 1998; to 280,048 in 2003; to 299,735 in 2008 and to 306,640 by 2013. This <br />projection would represent a 1.12% average annual compound increase in population over the <br />next twenty years. The MWVCOG reported historical and projected population levels are <br />gnphed in Exhibit l. <br />Page 1 <br />